One of the most popular theses put forward recently by both political figures of various ranks and representatives of the scientific community has become the thesis about the need for rapid development of science and the dynamic implementation of its achievements. Since this task covers many aspects of our lives, a special integrating indicator is required to assess the success of its implementation. Today, the concept of “technological structure” is increasingly claiming its role.
The world owes the appearance of this concept to the famous Russian scientist-economist N. Kondratiev, who headed the Moscow Market Research Institute, which existed under the People's Commissariat of Finance of the USSR. Studying the history of the development of the world economy, N. Kondratiev came to the idea of the existence of large - 50-55 years long - economic cycles, which are characterized by a certain level of development of productive forces (“technological structure”). As a rule, such cycles end in crises, followed by a stage of transition of productive forces to a higher level of development.
According to Kondratiev's theory, the scientific and technological revolution develops in waves, with cycles lasting approximately 50 years. To date, five technological structures (waves) are known.
First wave (1785-1835) formed a technological structure based on new technologies in the textile industry and the use of water energy.
Second wave (1830–1890)— accelerated development of railway and water transport based on steam engines, widespread introduction of steam engines into industrial production.
Third wave (1880-1940)— the use of electrical energy in industrial production, the development of heavy mechanical engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, and new discoveries in the field of chemistry. The spread of radio communications, telegraph, the development of the automobile industry. Formation of large firms, cartels, syndicates and trusts. The dominance of monopolies in markets. The beginning of the concentration of banking and financial capital.
Fourth wave (1930–1990)— the formation of a world order based on the further development of energy using oil and petroleum products, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. The period of mass production of cars, tractors, airplanes, various types of weapons, and consumer goods. Widespread distribution of computers and software products. Use of atomic energy for military and peaceful purposes. Conveyor technologies are becoming the basis of mass production. The formation of transnational and multinational companies that make direct investments in the markets of various countries.
Fifth wave (1985—2035) relies on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, the use of new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies, connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.
It is assumed that with the acceleration of scientific and technological progress, the period between changes in technological structures will be reduced.
Today the world is on the threshold of the sixth technological order. Its contours are just beginning to appear in the developed countries of the world, primarily in the USA, Japan and China, and are characterized by a focus on the development and application of knowledge-intensive, or, as they now say, “high technologies”. Everyone is now hearing about bio- and nanotechnologies, genetic engineering, membrane and quantum technologies, photonics, micromechanics, thermonuclear energy - the synthesis of achievements in these areas should lead to the creation, for example, of a quantum computer, artificial intelligence and ultimately provide access to fundamentally a new level in management systems of the state, society, and economy.
Forecast experts believe that if the current pace of technical and economic development is maintained, the sixth technological structure will begin to take shape in 2010-2020, and will enter the maturity phase in the 2040s. At the same time, in 2020-2025 there will be a new scientific, technical and technological revolution, the basis of which will be developments that synthesize the achievements of the above basic areas. There are reasons for such predictions. In the USA, for example, the share of productive forces of the fifth technological order is 60%, of the fourth - 20%. And about 5% already fall on the sixth technological structure.
As for the situation in Russia, in the paradigm of technological structures, the fourth technological structure is industry, and primarily mechanical engineering and energy. The fifth way of life became a kind of transitional stage of an imitation-virtual nature, the main elements of which were money and information. The fifth technological structure is primarily devoted to financial mechanisms and information processing mechanisms. The final stage of the fifth, financial and technological structure was marked by the fact that they changed places, and with the help of information it became possible to earn money, as a result of which the so-called dot-coms appeared - companies whose business model is entirely related to work on the Internet.
These changes are also associated with problems that have arisen at the present stage. In particular, it turned out that the fourth technological structure cannot withstand, for a number of reasons, the challenges that emerged in the fifth, and the fifth has outgrown its capabilities. That is, the modern financial and information machine has reached the threshold of its complexity. From systems theory we know that if a certain system approaches the threshold of complexity, then either it collapses or is simplified, changing its structure, until control is restored. This is what is called a systemic crisis.
The essence of the sixth technological order is the replacement of information with meaning, knowledge, the priority of a producing rather than a consuming economy. A fundamentally different organization of society is being formed, which is becoming more networked, and due to this, its clustering and granulation occurs. Thus, if within the framework of the fourth and fifth modes it was possible to talk about a vertically structured organization of society, then the sixth mode, due to a number of inevitable properties, presupposes a greater horizontal spatio-temporal distribution. The modern globalized world continues to live in a management system that was formed in the fourth, and partly in the fifth, structure, that is, the vertical. It works great in conditions of mobilization and the need to solve some super task. In addition, in the financial sector, in order to achieve a qualitative transition to a new state, a move away from short-term money to long-term money, to long-term investments, and, as a consequence, to super-projects is required. In the Soviet period, an example of such a super-project could be space exploration, which was initially considered as an offshoot from the program for the development of the military-industrial complex. This super project was focused on the long term.
Management of the sixth way is fundamentally different and is of a network nature. The network as a mechanism for exchanging information and making decisions allows you to maximally expand the circle of people involved in the development and adoption of management decisions.
The share of fifth-generation technologies in Russia is about 10%, and primarily only in the most developed industries: in the military-industrial complex and in the aerospace industry. More than 50% of technologies belong to the fourth level, and almost a third belong to the third level. This explains the complexity of the task facing domestic science and technology: in order for our country to be able to become one of the states with the sixth technological structure over the next 10 years, it needs, figuratively speaking, to jump over the stage - through the fifth way.
However, to achieve such a result, significant changes are required regarding the forms and methods of management. They can be realized if science has the status of an independent branch of the economy with all the ensuing consequences. The leading countries of the world have already come to this. Most of them have a powerful scientific foundation and an active innovation system that allows them to create and constantly maintain this foundation at a high level, quickly turning it into practical results. It must be remembered that Russia’s entry into the sixth technological structure is not an end in itself, but a matter of comprehensive economic development, ensuring the security and international status of the country, and achieving a high level of well-being in our country.
Technological structure- ...a set of related industries that have a single technical level and develop synchronously. The change in the dominant technological structures in the economy predetermines the uneven progress of scientific and technological progress (author Lopatnikov, 2003)
The theory of periodic cycles of development of socio-economic formations has been substantiated by a significant number of researchers. The model developed by in the 20s last century, Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratyev. He drew attention to the fact that in long-term dynamics one can observe the cyclical regularity of economic indicators. Kondratiev calculated that the phases of economic growth and phases of decline alternate with a periodicity of 45-60 years. Such fluctuations in the economy were called “Kondratieff cycles” by their followers. The theory has a significant number of opponents and critical reviews, but nevertheless provides the opportunity to substantiate the timing of global crises, as well as the periods and main drivers of active growth.
At the end of the 20th century, using new opportunities, the periods of “Kondratieff cycles” were clarified and a model of technological structures was developed. The key characteristics of the structures are clearly illustrated in the table
“Periodization of technological structures”
|
Way of life |
Main period |
Significant event |
Prevailing technologies |
|
1 |
1772-1825 |
The first industrial revolution. Creation of the “Water frame” spinning machine and textile mill in Cromford by R. Arkwright |
Water engine; Iron smelting; Iron processing; Construction of canals. |
|
2 |
1825-1875 |
The Age of Steam. Steam locomotive "Lokomotion No. 1", Stockton - Darlington Railway |
Steam engine; Coal industry; Mechanical engineering; Ferrous metallurgy; Machine tool industry. |
|
3 |
1875-1908 |
Age of Steel. Second industrial revolution. Creation of the Edgar Thomson Steel Works plant in Pittsburgh based on the Bessemer converter. |
Steel production; Heavy and electrical engineering; Shipbuilding; Heavy weapons; Inorganic chemistry; Standardization; Power lines. |
|
4 |
1908-1971 |
The Age of Oil. Introduction of a belt conveyor at G. Ford's enterprises, start of production of the Ford Model T. |
Automotive industry; Synthetic materials, Organic chemistry; Nuclear energy; Electronics industry. |
|
5 |
1971-2006 |
eraI.T. Scientific and technological revolution. Creation of the Intel 4004 microprocessor, First use of the name "Silicon Valley" |
Computer Science; Space technology; Telecommunications; Robotics; Artificial intelligence; Biotechnology. |
|
6 |
?? 2007 - 2040 ?? |
Nanotechnology. Intel announced the creation of a processor with structural elements less than 45 nm. |
Virtual reality technologies; Nanoelectronics; Molecular and nanophotonics; Nanobiotechnology Nanosystem technology. |
There is an opinion that Russia can gain significant advantages by “jumping” from the 4th Technological Structure directly to the 6th Technological Structure, without spending resources on catching up with developed countries in the technologies of the 5th Technological Structure.
According to experts, the economies of Russia and the United States are represented by technologies of various structures in the following proportion:
|
Way of life |
III |
IV |
V |
VI |
|
Russian Federation |
30% |
50% |
10% |
- |
|
United States of America |
- |
20% |
60% |
5% |
Prepared by SAVEUR Consulting consultant I.V. Yanov based on published articles and speeches by participants of the TECHNOPROM 2013 forum
Today, most countries in the world have a market economy. And the main feature of such a system is its instability. The economy successively experiences boom, peak, recession and depression. But each new cycle makes changes to the existing technological structure, until quantity turns into quality, and production moves to a new level. The impact of such innovations on the economy will be discussed in today’s article.
The growth of a market economy does not occur in an upward direction. It is characterized by fluctuations in business activity, which are periodic in nature. Within the framework of the neoclassical movement, they are interpreted as cycles around an established long-term trend.
There are two views on their causes: scholastic and deterministic. The first assumes that the factors that give rise to changes in the cycle are random. Depression in this case is the result of the influence of internal and external impulses on the national economy. The deterministic point of view assumes that cycle changes are caused by well-defined factors of recession or recovery. The change in technological structures is similarly explained by these two theories.
Traditionally, there are four main types of cycles, which differ in duration and are named after the name of the scientist who noticed them: Kitchin (3-4 years), Juglar (7-11 years), Kuznets (15-25), Kondratiev (45-60). Technological structures in the economy are precisely associated with long waves. There are four phases in the cycles of entrepreneurial activity: bottom (depression), rise (recovery), peak, decline (recession). They are most clearly manifested in the medium-term Juglar fluctuations.
Depression (bottom) is the lowest point on the graph of production and employment. It is believed that this phase cannot be long. But this assumption can easily be refuted throughout history. For example, the Great Depression of the 1930s lasted for a full ten years with little fluctuation in business activity up or down. However, many scientists believe that such exceptions only confirm the rule.
After the depression, the economy begins to recover. Its feature is the gradual expansion of production and increased employment of human resources. This stage is usually characterized by low inflation rates. Innovations with a short payback period are best implemented, since the population has not yet recovered from the difficult previous period. In this phase, the demand that was put aside during the depression begins to be realized.
Gradually the economy reaches the top of the cycle. This phase is characterized by the lowest levels of inflation. It may disappear completely while production facilities are operating at maximum capacity. Inflation often increases during a peak. Saturation of markets increases competition, which leads to a fall in profit margins and an increase in the payback period for innovation. There is a need for long-term lending in the economy. Only a new technological structure can sharply reverse the situation.
Gradually, the capabilities of the manufacturing sector are declining. There is a decrease in investment and business activity. This leads to increased unemployment and decreased capacity utilization. Gradually, the economy begins to approach a state of depression again. The phases of the economic cycle repeat again. And this continues throughout the development of civilization.
The national economy is the set of resources that ensures growing consumption. During its heyday or peak, it is able to fully meet the needs of its population. During a depression, most people fall below the poverty line. During the peak, investors' returns are maximum. This leads to the concentration of capital in the economy, which gradually reduces the rate of profit. Many investors are starting to leave the country because they do not want to receive less income than before. This triggers the start of a recession. A decrease in investment volumes leads to a curtailment of production activities, and the solvency of the population falls. At the same time, a crisis in one industry gradually spreads to the entire economy as a whole.
In addition to a decrease in investment volumes due to falling profit margins, the cause of crises is the obsolescence of technology. And NTP often stimulates the achievement of a peak. The term “technological structure” is an analogue of the concept “wave of innovation”. The latter is more often used by foreign scientists. It was first proposed in the work “Theoretical and Applied Aspects of Managing Scientific and Technical Progress” by D. S. Lvov and S. Yu. Glazyev, published in 1986.
The way of life, according to scientists, is a set of existing breakthrough inventions that provide a qualitative leap in the development of the productive forces of society. The economic development of a country is directly related to its perception of scientific and technical progress innovations. The theory of technological structures allowed us to rethink Nikolai Kondratiev’s concept of cyclicity.
Scientific and technological progress and economic growth are closely related. Waves of technology are creating entirely new sectors and opportunities for investment and growth. Their development, in turn, stimulates the entire economy as a whole. Since the Industrial Revolution, the technological structure has changed five times. Scientists' opinions on the main breakthrough technologies vary somewhat. Let us consider each of the structures as interpreted by foreign scientists.
Economic growth is closely related to changes in technological structures. The more time passes after the Industrial Revolution, the faster scientific and technological progress goes. Innovation waves are getting shorter. The first lasted 60 years, but the fourth only 40. This reflects the growing potential for innovation and the ability of economic systems to extract commercial benefits from technological innovation. Innovations are no longer considered the results of individual efforts, but are organized joint actions. The phase of the business cycle has a significant impact on the process of technology development and implementation. It, in turn, is a factor ensuring a way out of the crisis. It is difficult to predict which invention will provide the next wave of economic development. Some of the candidates are energy-saving technologies and robotics.
The scheme of technological structures approximately coincides with the large cycles noted by the Russian scientist. Nikolai Kondratiev was the first economist whose work on this topic received international recognition. Before him, two Danish scientists, Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff, noted the existence of fifty- or sixty-year cycles. But their work has only recently been translated into other languages. In 1939, Joseph Schumpeter proposed naming long waves after Kondratieff. The theory was further developed within the framework of the Marxist school.
Kondratiev identified three phases of the cycle: expansion, stagnation and recession. Although it is generally accepted to divide it into four periods with a turning point between the first and second. Kondratieff identified two waves in the 19th century. The long cycle affects all sectors of the economy. The scientist himself focused his research on prices and interest rates. Using these characteristics, he described the rise and fall of the economy. A revival of business activity is characterized by an increase in prices and a decrease in interest rates; a recession is the opposite.
Many scientists, including Kondratiev himself, tried to figure out why long waves arise. There are currently four main explanations:
The global financial crisis of 2008 made us think about the need for dramatic changes in the economy. Have existing technologies exhausted their growth potential? James Moody predicts that new innovations should be aimed at increasing the efficiency of resource use. The sixth technological order, according to the scientist, will be associated with huge changes in the structure of the market and social institutions.
The basis for human survival is protecting the environment. The sixth technological mode does not involve harvesting numerous resources, but managing them to achieve the greatest output with the least use.
The main task of the Russian Federation today is the transition to a new wave of innovation. If the country fails to do this, then it will only be left with the role of a raw materials appendage to developed countries. Modern technological structures are based on energy saving, the use of nanoelectronics, and artificial intelligence. The resources for growth of existing production have already been almost completely exhausted, so what is needed is not gradual modernization, but its complete reorientation. Russia needs not catching up, but advanced development.
I looked at Karaganov’s website to read what he thinks about life there. And he writes about the sixth technological structure, which, supposedly, no one in Russia has ever heard of. Interested. It turned out that some people are thinking about the seventh and this will be the time when psychology merges in ecstasy with physics. I wish everyone to survive.
“The concept of a technological structure was introduced into circulation by Russian economists D.S. Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev. According to the most common point of view, a technological structure is a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of production development. In connection with scientific and technological progress, there is a transition from lower structures to higher, progressive ones. The foundations of the subsequent technological structure arise, as a rule, during the period of dominance and flourishing of the previous or even pre-previous structure. But until the previous structure has exhausted all the possibilities for its development, the sprouts of the subsequent structure remain in the shadows and do not receive widespread development. It is conventionally accepted that the duration of a technological structure is 50–60 years. Today, economists identify 5 existing structures and talk about the onset of the 6th.
The first way of life (1785–1835) arose on the basis of the development of technology in the textile industry and the widespread use of water energy. Although steam engines already existed at this time, they were not yet widely used.
The second mode (1830–1890) refers to the era of accelerated development of transport (construction of railways, steam shipping) and the emergence of mechanical production in all industries based on the steam engine.
The third way (1880–1940) is based on use in industrial production of electrical energy, development of heavy engineering and electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communications, telegraphs, and automobiles were introduced. Large firms, cartels, syndicates, and trusts appeared. Monopolies dominated the market. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.
The fourth way (1930–1990) appeared as a result of further development of energy using oil and petroleum products, gas, communications, new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, airplanes, various types of weapons, and consumer goods. Computers and software products for them, and radars appeared and became widespread. Atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Mass production was organized based on conveyor technology. Oligopolistic competition dominates the market. Transnational and international companies that made direct investments in the markets of various countries.
The fifth way (1985–2035) is based on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies, connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.
The sixth technological order will be characterized by the development of robotics, biotechnologies based on the achievements of molecular biology and genetic engineering, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, and integrated high-speed transport systems. Within the framework of the sixth technological order, flexible automation of production, space technologies, production of structural materials with predetermined properties, the nuclear industry, air transportation will be further developed, nuclear energy will grow, the consumption of natural gas will be complemented by the expansion of the use of hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier, will expand significantly use of renewable energy sources.
What is the seventh technological order? And isn’t it too early to talk about it, if even the sixth way has not yet begun? In our opinion, it is not too early. As mentioned above, the sprouts of a subsequent technological structure always arise in the depths of the previous or even pre-previous structure. Today the fifth way of life dominates in our society. The contours of the sixth way of life are already clearly visible to everyone. And the sprouts of the seventh way are just beginning to emerge, and therefore they are visible only to those who are closely involved in the technologies of the seventh way. How will the seventh way of life differ from all previous ones?
In our opinion, the fundamental difference between the seventh technological structure and all previous ones will be the inclusion of human consciousness in production. We can say it differently: human consciousness will become the same productive force that science became in its time. Such technologies can be called cognitive (English conscious - consciousness). Until now, the production of any product does not require the direct participation of human consciousness: in order to press a button on a machine and put a tool into operation, muscular effort is required, and even then only at the very initial stage, and then the worker can only watch the work of the tool, without interfering with his work. But in order to carry out this process, a machine must first be manufactured and a huge amount of material, fuel, labor and time must be spent on this. However, when our consciousness itself becomes a productive force, we gain the ability to make the product we need directly from the void, without resorting to to the preliminary manufacturing a machine or other equipment.”
Full text here. But you don’t have to read it because it’s bullshit.
Technological structure– these are groups of technological aggregates connected to each other by similar technological chains and forming reproducing wholes.
The technical structure is characterized by:
key factor
organizational and economic regulatory mechanism.
The concept of way of life means arrangement, an established order of organizing something.
In the modern concept, the life cycle of a technological structure has 3 phases of development and is determined by a time period of approximately 100 years. The first phase corresponds to its origin and the formation of the previous technological structure in the economy. The second phase is associated with the structural restructuring of the economy on the basis of new production technology and corresponds to the period of dominance of the new technological structure for approximately 50 years. The third phase occurs when the obsolete way of life is dying out and the next one is emerging.
S.Yu. Glazyev developed the theory of N. Kondratiev and identified five technological structures. However, unlike Kondratiev, Glazyev believes that the life cycle of a technological structure has not two parts (upward and downward waves), but three phases and is determined by a period of 100 years.
Between phases I and II there is a period of monopoly. Individual organizations achieve an effective monopoly, develop, and receive high profits, because are protected by intellectual and industrial property laws.
Product innovations themselves are considered primary. They appear in the depths of the economy of the previous technological structure. The very appearance of extraordinary innovations—products—signifies the emergence of a new technological order. However, its slow development over a certain period of time is explained by the monopoly position of individual companies that were the first to apply product innovations. They are successfully developing, achieving high profits, as they are protected by intellectual property laws.
Russian scientists have described the fourth and fifth technological ways (see table).
Table - Chronology and characteristics of technological structures
| technological structure number | |||||
| Period of dominance | 1770-1830 | 1830-1880 | 1880-1930 | 1930-1980 | From 1980 to 1990 for 2030-2040 (?) |
| Technology leaders | UK, France, Belgium | UK, France, Belgium, Germany, USA | Germany, USA, UK, France, Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands | USA, Western European countries, USSR, Canada, Australia, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland | Japan, USA, European Union |
| Developed countries | German states, Netherlands | Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria-Hungary, Russia | Russia, Italy, Denmark, Austria-Hungary, Canada, Japan, Spain, Sweden | Brazil, Mexico, China, Taiwan, India | Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Canada, Australia, Taiwan, Korea, Russia and the CIS-? |
| The core of the technological structure | Textile industry, textile engineering, iron smelting, iron processing, canal construction, water engine | Steam engine, railway construction, transport, machine, steamship, coal, machine tool industry, ferrous metallurgy | Electrical engineering, heavy engineering, steel production and rolling, power lines, inorganic chemistry | Automobile and tractor construction, non-ferrous metallurgy, durable goods production, synthetic materials, organic chemistry, oil production and refining | Electronics industry, computing, fiber optic technology, software, telecommunications, robotics, gas production and processing, information services |
| Key factor | Textile machines | Steam engine, machine tools | Electric motor, steel | Internal combustion engine, petrochemicals | Microelectronic components |
| The emerging core of a new way of life | Steam engines, mechanical engineering | Steel, electrical power, heavy engineering, inorganic chemistry | Automotive industry, organic chemistry, oil production and refining, non-ferrous metallurgy, road construction | Radars, pipeline construction, aviation industry, gas production and processing | Biotechnology, space technology, fine chemistry |
| Advantages of the technological structure compared to the previous one | Mechanization and concentration of production in factories | Increase in scale and concentration of production based on the use of the steam engine | Increasing production flexibility based on the use of an electric motor, standardization of production, urbanization | Mass and batch production | Individualization of production and consumption, increasing production flexibility, overcoming environmental restrictions on energy and material consumption based on automated control systems, de-urbanization based on telecommunication technologies |
Technologically developed countries have moved from the fourth to the fifth technological order, embarking on the path of deindustrialization of production. At the same time, modifications of manufactured models are being carried out for products of the fourth technological order, which is sufficient to ensure effective demand in their countries to maintain market niches abroad.
The fourth technological structure(the fourth wave) was formed on the basis of the development of energy using oil, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors and agricultural machinery, aircraft, and various types of weapons. At this time, the computer appeared and software products for them began to be created. Atomic energy has been used for peaceful and military purposes. Mass production was organized based on conveyor technology.
Fifth wave relies on achievements in the field of microeconomics, computer science, satellite communications, and genetic engineering. There is a globalization of the economy, facilitated by the worldwide information network.
The core of a new sixth technological order, including biotechnology, space technology, fine chemistry, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, the formation of network business communities, etc. The origin of the 6th way of life dates back to the early 90s of the twentieth century within the framework of the 5th technological way of life.
In the domestic economy, for a number of objective reasons, the potential of the third and fourth technological structures has not yet been fully used. At the same time, high-tech industries of the fifth technological order were created.
The dominance of a technological structure over a long period of time is influenced by government support for new technologies in combination with the innovative activities of organizations. Process innovations improve product quality, help reduce production costs and ensure stable consumer demand in the goods market.
Thus, the main conclusion that follows from studying the influence of innovation on the level of economic development is the conclusion about uneven wave-like innovative development. This conclusion is taken into account when developing and selecting innovation strategies. Previously, forecasts used a trend approach based on extrapolation, which assumed the inertia of economic systems. Recognition of the cyclical nature of innovative development made it possible to explain its spasmodic nature.
In the modern concept of the theory of innovation, it is customary to distinguish such concepts as product life cycle And life cycle of production technology.
The product life cycle consists of four phases.
1. In the first phase, research and development is carried out to create an innovation product. The phase ends with the transfer of processed technical documentation to the production departments of industrial organizations.
2. In the second phase, technological development of large-scale production of a new product occurs, accompanied by a reduction in costs and an increase in profits.
Both the first and especially the second phase are associated with significant risky investments, which are allocated on a repayable basis. The subsequent increase in production scale is accompanied by a decrease in costs and an increase in profits. This makes it possible to recoup investments in the first and second phases of the product life cycle.
3. A feature of the third phase is the stabilization of production volumes.
4. In the fourth phase, there is a gradual decrease in production and sales volumes.
The life cycle of a production technology also consists of 4 phases:
1. The emergence of innovation processes through a wide range of technological R&D.
2. Mastering innovations and processes at the facility.
3. Distribution and replication of new technology with repeated repetition at other facilities.
4. Implementation of innovation processes in stable, constantly functioning elements of objects (routinization).
